The Run In: End-of-season form for title, European and relegation rivals

We look at how teams involved in 2025/26's key battles and races have performed at the end of previous campaigns Football writer Ben Bloom looks at the potential outcomes for the title race, relegation battle and European race as we enter the final weeks of the Premier League season. As we come to the business end of the 2025/26 Premier League campaign, there is much to play for throughout the table in the final seven Matchweeks, a period we call The Run In. We have looked at how this season's rivals for the title, European spots and top-flight safety have fared in the last seven matches of past campaigns. 2025/26 title race The 2025/26 Premier League title race has come down to a two-way race between Arsenal, who are seeking to become champions for the first time in 22 years, and Manchester City, who are looking for a fifth crown in six seasons.Mikel Arteta's Arsenal side have played one game more than Man City and currently hold a nine-point lead at the top. But as we enter The Run In, how have each club fared in their final seven matches of past seasons? Over Premier League history, there is almost nothing to choose between the two clubs’ performances in the final stretch. While Arsenal have averaged 13.1 points from their final seven matches across 33 campaigns, Man City’s results have yielded an average of 13.0 points. But the present-day Man City are, especially under Pep Guardiola, an entirely different proposition to that which played in the Premier League more than three decades ago, and the two clubs’ fortunes have diverged in recent years. Over the past decade, Man City average 17.1 points from a possible 21 during this period, with Arsenal averaging 13.4. If we look at their respective managerial tenures, Guardiola’s average tally of 17.7 points across his nine seasons compares more favourably then the average of 14 for Arteta. Indeed, in eight of his nine seasons at Man City, Guardiola has led his side to at least five wins from the final seven matches. Arteta has achieved this in just three of his six seasons in charge of Arsenal. Arsenal and Man City's points per game in final seven matches Team PPG all time PPG 10 years Arsenal 1.87 2.44 Man City 1.86 1.91 Average points for MW32-38 from 2015/16 to 2024/25 Team Ave. points PPG Man City 17.1 2.44 Arsenal 13.4 1.91 2025/26 European quest Of the clubs bidding for a top-five spot and UEFA Champions League football next season, Manchester United and Aston Villa occupy the strongest positions in the Premier League table. However their performances in The Run In over the past decade are a shadow of Liverpool and Chelsea’s, who are hoping to muscle their way into the Champions League equation. In the past 10 years, Man Utd and Villa average 10.5 points and 9.1 points respectively from their final seven matches, compared with Liverpool's 14.9 and Chelsea's 12.4. Man Utd and Villa’s season-ending fortunes are unlikely to vary quite as much as they did last year, when Man Utd's tally of four points from their final seven games under now-departed head coach Ruben Amorim marked the club’s worst-ever Run In. Conversely, Villa have only once exceeded the 15 points they claimed in last season's Run In. Only four points currently separate the seven clubs (Brentford, Everton, Fulham, Brighton & Hove Albion, Sunderland, Newcastle United and AFC Bournemouth) occupying the places from seventh to 13th. Five of them average tallies of 8-11 points over the last seven matches across the past decade, although Brentford (13.5) and Fulham (6.4) are major outliers. If those divergent fortunes are replicated this campaign, it will have a major bearing on who qualifies for European competitions and who misses out. European contenders' most points per game in final seven matches Team PPG all time PPG 10 years BRE 1.93 1.93 LIV 1.89 2.13 MUN 1.89 1.50 CHE 1.79 1.77 EVE 1.42 1.49 AVL 1.38 1.30 FUL 1.27 0.91 BHA 1.21 1.21 BOU 1.09 1.16 2025/26 relegation battle With Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley requiring a big change in fortunes to maintain their Premier League statuses, the relegation battle looks to be focused on the final spot, with Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United all looking to avoid the drop. Spurs have the best average points tally (10.5) of that quartet over the past decade, although new head coach Roberto De Zerbi will want to avoid a repeat of last season’s solitary point in their final seven games. West Ham sit one point beneath Spurs and have not won more than two of their final seven matches in the past four seasons, and only twice in 29 top-flight campaigns have they won four or more. Relegation rivals' most points per game in final seven matches Team PPG all time PPG 10 years TOT 1.40 1.50 LEE 1.40 1.14 NFO 1.30 1.24 WHU 1.26 1.29 More on The Run In